The forthcoming Budget could think of maintaining public capital expenditure at 3 per cent so that domestic resources are available for private investments, points out N R Bhanumurthy.
The Indian central government has reduced its total expenditure by approximately 60,000 crore in FY26, below its revised estimate, to successfully achieve the fiscal deficit target of 4.4 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP), according to the latest data from the Controller General of Accounts (CGA).
Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, experienced declines in early trade due to escalating tensions between the US and Iran, which led to a surge in crude oil prices and weak global equity trends.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is anticipated to make its highest-ever dividend payment to the government this year, providing a significant fiscal boost to address challenges, including those stemming from the ongoing Middle East crisis.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has announced a record surplus transfer of Rs 2.87 trillion to the central government for FY26, driven by increased income and an expanded balance sheet, despite a reduction in the contingent risk buffer (CRB) to 6.5 per cent.
Moody's Ratings has downgraded India's growth forecast for financial year 2026-27 (FY27) to 6 per cent from 6.8 per cent, attributing the revision to weaker consumption and industrial activity, elevated energy prices, and rising input costs stemming from the West Asia conflict.
Prism, the parent company of OYO, has filed updated draft papers with Sebi for a Rs 6,650 crore initial public offering (IPO) consisting entirely of a fresh issue of shares, with no offer-for-sale component from existing investors.
India achieved a current account surplus of USD 7.1 billion, or 0.7 per cent of GDP, in the January-March quarter of 2025-26, primarily boosted by robust services exports and increased remittances from overseas Indians, according to recent Reserve Bank of India data.
India and the United States have reviewed progress on a proposed interim bilateral trade agreement, discussing market access, digital trade, and non-tariff barriers, as they race to finalise a deal before a temporary 10 per cent US tariff regime expires on July 24.
Following through announcements with enforcement of measures is key, as a run through recent Indian economic history shows, points out A K Bhattacharya.
Reserve Bank Governor Sanjay Malhotra announced that India's foreign exchange reserves stand at a healthy $682.3 billion as of May 29, 2026, providing approximately 11 months of import cover and strong protection against external shocks.
Hybrid mutual fund schemes attracted significant inflows of Rs 1.55 lakh crore in FY26, a 29 per cent increase, as investors increasingly opted for diversified investment strategies to navigate volatile market conditions and geopolitical tensions.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced a fiscal deficit target of 4.3% of GDP for FY27, continuing the path of fiscal consolidation. The government aims to reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio to 55.6% by BE 2026-27 and further to around 50% by March 2031.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced that the India-UK Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) will come into effect on July 15, 2026, anticipating a significant boost to bilateral trade and investment.
Adani group companies reported a record capital expenditure of Rs 1.53 lakh crore (USD 16.1 billion) and an all-time high EBITDA of Rs 94,834 crore (USD 10 billion) in the 2025-26 fiscal year, signalling an accelerating infrastructure expansion cycle while maintaining leverage below its stated target.
A US federal judge has ruled that the USD 100,000 fee imposed by former President Donald Trump for H-1B visa applications was unlawful, as it lacked congressional approval. The ruling states the fee was a tax, exceeding the administration's authority and impacting skilled global talent.
India's economy registered a robust 7.7 per cent growth in the fiscal year 2025-26, an increase from 7.1 per cent in the previous year, with the January-March quarter alone seeing a 7.8 per cent expansion.
Amul and Mother Dairy, India's largest dairy product retailers, have increased milk prices by Rs 2 per litre, marking the second such hike in 13 months. This move is expected to intensify inflationary pressures, already fuelled by global conflicts, and will impact household budgets across the country.
A prolonged supply shock can transmit to lower incomes, and dampen confidence and sentiment, warns Aditi Nayar, chief economist, head-research and outreach, ICRA.
S&P Global Ratings projects India's economy to grow at 6.3 per cent even if crude oil prices average USD 130 per barrel in the current fiscal year, highlighting the nation's resilience amidst the West Asia crisis and strong commitment to fiscal consolidation.
'Even last year, when India bought gold, the physical quantity was much less than the previous years.'
Even if there is an early agreement on a cessation of hostilities in West Asia, the price shock will not go away easily, points out A K Bhattacharya.
If TVK MLAs and ministers are perceived as clean, or demonstrably cleaner than their predecessors, the credibility dividend will be enormous. The voter will feel rewarded, points out Ramesh Menon.
Indian benchmark equity indices, Sensex and Nifty, closed lower due to investor caution over rising bond yields, a weaker rupee, and fresh fuel price hikes, which have revived inflation concerns.
'OMCs are incurring losses of Rs 1,000 crore per day due to the West Asia crisis.'
State-owned Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL), and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) are reportedly incurring losses of Rs 18 per litre on petrol and Rs 35 per litre on diesel, as they continue to absorb rising crude oil costs without increasing retail prices. This situation is leading to expectations of a fuel price hike after upcoming state elections.
The World Bank has affirmed India's strong position to withstand the current global energy shock, citing high foreign exchange reserves, fiscal space, and low inflation as key buffers supporting continued growth despite international headwinds.
'Once the currency goes out of the hand, then possibly your major challenge is that it will not come back.'
'The BJP successfully merged governance with identity. That's a powerful combination in Assam's political context.'
S&P Global Ratings warns that a sustained rise in crude oil prices to $130 per barrel could significantly slow India's economic growth, weaken fiscal metrics, and strain corporate and banking sector performance, potentially reducing growth by up to 80 basis points.
A foreign brokerage warns that sustained crude oil prices above USD 100 per barrel could push India's inflation above the RBI's tolerance level, potentially triggering interest rate hikes.
Reliance Industries' digital arm, Jio Platforms, may see its initial public offering (IPO) delayed to the second half of fiscal 2027, according to CreditSights. The delay is primarily attributed to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which could impact market conditions and investor sentiment.
India emerged reasonably well from 2025. But now, the oil shock and war-related supply disruptions have again driven funds out of India and significantly weakened the rupee, points out Ajay Chhibber.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra stated that preventing second-round effects of supply shocks, where inflation expectations rise due to prolonged disruptions, is the primary role of monetary policy. He also defended the RBI's foreign exchange market interventions, asserting it did not commit to an 'indefensible peg'.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra is now confronting the classic growth-inflation tradeoff, a situation exacerbated by the West Asia war, which threatens to end the 'goldilocks period' of low inflation and robust growth.
Mixed-use real estate projects, integrating residential, commercial, retail, and hospitality segments, are gaining significant traction in India as developers seek to maximise returns, optimise land use, and diversify cash flows, with experts predicting 35-40% of urban real estate supply will be mixed-use by 2030.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has opted to keep its key interest rates unchanged at 5.25%, anticipating a global economic recovery following a ceasefire in the US/Israel-Iran conflict, despite ongoing inflationary pressures and currency fluctuations.
Union Minister Pankaj Chaudhary stated that Prime Minister Narendra Modi strengthened the Enforcement Directorate to combat financial crimes like money laundering and corruption, dismissing allegations of it being used to target political opponents.
'Narendra Modi -- a man with deep and vital experience of Indian politics -- has seen the BJP lose many elections between 1975 and 2015, and with every defeat, he learned lessons that made sure he would never allow his party to be defeated so easily again.'
'In investing, poor sentiment is always a good vintage to build a portfolio.'
